Trending @Accenture; Only Few people will get promoted

We all know that there is no hike in this mid-year cycle but there are few promotions as per budget allocated to the project.Lets assume a diamond project is to promote few ASE to SE and SE to SSE from a 100 people and 20 are favourites of SM and TLs how many people can get promoted in mid year? Considering there a very few promotions?just an estimate will work ?