India indicated that they can destroy Pak nukes, leading Pak to actually consider nukes as an option.
Source: New York Times
Yes, there is a news items doing round that Pakistan had been preparing to go in that direction and Americans gauged that situation will turn much worse during weekends, so they stepped in and made JD Vance call Modi and made both sides agree to ceasefire.
But ceasefire is not the point, how it happened is the point. India had never shown any hint that they want to escalate and demolish Pak, the public posture was always that you stop and we stop. How ceasefire happened, that is the point.
Very interesting
I don't think this is true. India is still ready to fight, its just that they dont want to start first. They will give only counter attack. Things are not going to nuclear level yet otherwise Pakistan will not dare to violate ceasefire or India giving strong reply that for every bullet, we will send missiles.
Ceasefire might be came from US fear as its F16 seems to be shot down. No confirmed news. US weapons failing create bad impact for US export. Pakistan agreed because they need time to prepare for war, currently they are out of ammunition. They will work with China to get the stock back.
India agreed for ceasefire because they don't want to escalate and task of attacking terriorst base camp is done. There is no objective of fighting Pak Army currently.
Check this
Lol....clearly an IT cell account posting with facade of Pakistan. Language is dead giveaway 😅
Who Holds the Pause Button?
From Washington to Riyadh, how international actors temper a regional rivalry with global consequences
In South Asia, war drums don’t always sound like boots or bombs. Sometimes, they sound like an IMF wire transfer—or a FATF compliance review.
On 9 May 2025, while satellite channels speculated about a new round of retaliatory strikes between India and Pakistan, something quieter—and perhaps more decisive—happened thousands of miles away in Washington. The International Monetary Fund approved the release of $1.1 billion to Pakistan, part of a broader $7 billion bailout intended to keep the country’s economy from collapsing into the Indus.
The money came with usual prescriptions—cut subsidies, tax the untaxed, stop the rupee’s freefall. But beneath the macroeconomic jargon was an unwritten clause: don’t start a war.
Pakistan may have once held the right to escalate. Today, it must seek permission from its creditors. And those creditors, along with a chorus of global allies, watchdogs, and silent investors, now play a larger role in South Asia’s blood-and-thunder theatre than the generals who still stand at the LOC.
The New Conflict Map Is a Ledger
Pakistan, battered by inflation, energy shortages, and a rotting tax base, turned to the IMF for the 23rd time in its history. This time, the fund’s conditions came with geopolitical overtones. Islamabad’s economy, tied to Saudi deposits and Chinese loans, was no longer just a fiscal matter—it was a strategic liability.
And standing beside the IMF, clipboard in hand, is the Financial Action Task Force (FATF)—watching every rupee, every remittance, and every loophole. Though Pakistan was removed from the FATF grey list in 2022, it remains under quiet but pointed scrutiny. Any lapse in counter-terror financing enforcement—or a whiff of state complicity—could see sanctions return, just when the country can least afford them.
In essence, the message from FATF is no different from the IMF’s: discipline your economy, control your proxies, or risk global isolation.
Which is to say: Pakistan can’t afford a war.
And everyone knows it.
Delhi Learns to Hit Without Burning Bridges
On the other side of the Radcliffe Line, India has also changed. Once married to the idea of “strategic restraint,” it now practices strategic messaging.
When the Pulwama terror attack happened in 2019, India struck deep into Balakot with airpower. No declarations. Just action. And since then, Delhi has refined this playbook: targeted strikes, limited engagements, and a flurry of diplomacy to frame the narrative before anyone else can.
India doesn’t just retaliate. It curates retaliation. And it does so with one eye on Washington, one on Tokyo, and a third on Bloomberg.
Because for Delhi too, growth depends on perception. And war—no matter how justifiable—tanks perception.
The United States: Present, But Distracted
The Americans no longer want to mediate the India–Pakistan story. They’ve seen this film too many times. The new U.S. interest lies in containing China, securing supply chains, and making sure South Asia doesn’t become a footnote in a much bigger strategic screenplay.
But when the subcontinent stirs, Washington still calls.
They remind Islamabad that a war will nullify any goodwill with the IMF. They remind Delhi that global investors like calm, not cannon fire. And then, they disappear back into the Indo-Pacific.
They are not referees anymore. They’re more like an anxious landlord hoping the tenants don’t burn the house down.
China: The Iron Brother with Glass Nerves
Beijing publicly calls Pakistan its “iron brother,” a phrase that’s been worn smooth with overuse. Behind closed doors, however, China has growing anxieties. Its $60+ billion investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) snakes through volatile regions and rests on an illusion of peace.
Every time Pakistan escalates with India, Chinese engineers in Balochistan look over their shoulders. And so does Beijing.
China shields Pakistan diplomatically—watering down UN statements, vetoing sanctions—but refuses to be dragged into its fights. Its support is conditional, calculated, and quietly exasperated.
The iron brother? More like a cautious investor wondering if the partner is worth the risk.
The Gulf’s New Terms of Endearment
Saudi Arabia and the UAE once handed cash to Pakistan with affectionate impunity. Today, they want receipts.
Yes, they’ve rolled over billions in deposits. Yes, they helped unlock the IMF deal. But the Gulf monarchies now expect reforms in return. They also increasingly see India not as a rival to Pakistan, but as a massive economic opportunity—a nation of markets, infrastructure projects, and quiet diplomacy.
So when Pakistan rings for help, the Gulf doesn’t hang up. But it puts them on hold.
Israel’s Quiet Hand
You won’t hear about Israel in the official Indo-Pak narrative. But look closely at the sky over Kashmir and you might spot a Heron drone. Or trace a signal jam to an Israeli-origin radar system. Or follow the debris of a loitering munition back to a startup in Tel Aviv.
India and Israel have built a quiet, formidable partnership in surveillance, cyberwarfare, and smart munitions. This gives Delhi an edge in any future encounter—and offers Israel a large, non-Arab market for its defense exports.
It’s a relationship of few words and many technologies.
Turkey, Qatar, and the Chorus of Support
When tensions rise, Turkey speaks. Erdoğan offers full-throated support to Pakistan. Qatar, more muted, provides energy, military cooperation, and a platform for Taliban diplomacy. But neither holds real leverage in the event of escalation.
Their support is warm, symbolic, and largely irrelevant to the new economic calculus.
They are the background singers in a geopolitical opera dominated by bigger soloists.
Iran and Afghanistan: The Two-Front Squeeze
Pakistan’s western borders are no longer quiet. The return of the Taliban has not brought stability, but sanctuary for TTP insurgents. Iran, meanwhile, launches missile strikes across the Balochistan border in retaliation for Sunni militant attacks.
Every time Pakistan thinks about turning east toward India, it is reminded that its western flank is burning.
Russia: Neutral But Not Disinterested
Moscow, once India’s stalwart partner, now plays a more neutral tune. It sells arms to both India and Pakistan. It offers mediation but picks no sides. It wants BRICS to grow, but not at the cost of watching South Asia burn.
Russia’s influence is more about what it doesn’t say—a form of passive diplomacy that still carries weight.
The Real Theatre: Not the LOC, But the Ledger
The truth is, South Asia’s most volatile border is not between Jammu and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. It runs between fiscal survival and strategic recklessness.
It’s drawn in IMF spreadsheets, FATF scorecards, Saudi loan guarantees, Chinese project deadlines, and U.S. strategic restraint.
The “pause button” in the ongoing conflict doesn’t lie with any general. It lies with a banker, a compliance auditor, a diplomat in Brussels, or a technocrat in New York.
Pakistan’s generals may still mock-roar from across the LOC, but the world now controls the volume.
Because in this new age, escalation isn’t merely a decision—it’s a liability. And many of the world’s most influential stakeholders, with money and stability on the line, may no longer be willing to foot the bill.
This is so well written. If you wrote it then kudos and if not, thanks for sharing this.
So nicely written and logical.. original article link?
Very difficult to believe what India, Pak and US discuss - NYT will have any inside source to confirm it.
They have been shunned by their own government.
We hit them where they thought we could never hit. They panicked and called for ceasefire. India's policy has been to defend and attack the terrorists and strike back in case Pakistan tries to retaliate. No point of engaging in a war with a bhikari nation and derail our growth ambitions.
Hi, consider a hypothetical situation where Pak nukes India, and in retaliation, India did the same with Pak. Then, what would have been the consequences, both the countries will be devastated?
Pak would be for sure 💯
The world would be devastated, in just some years we would have a whole new generation of humans maybe some budhau elites who get to the bunkers or israelis. The smoke of this would not stay to India or Pak, it would go above the clouds, reach America to Japan, everywhere. The whole sky wont look blue maybe forever, it would stop raining or even if it did, it would be acid on the ground. And this isnt India or Pakistan, this would be for the whole world.
It's not like that, here is my take, as the IMF has sanctioned over 7 billion USD to Pakistan, so Pakistan can use that money for whatever they want. As Chinese product failed in the evening and didn't go to Moon, so Pakistan is supposed to change it's war materials from America with that money. Now if Pakistan escalate it further, India will respond firmly and proportionately but Pakistan is losing out of Weapons. Now the shortest route to take the weapon for pakistan was the Pak Occupied Kashmir, there is a railway and by road connectivity to China, but Pakistan government is not ready to take war materials from china as the sold scrap to the pakistan army, now only one global supplier is America and it would take time to reach to Pakistan. Till the time they will wait.
I vouch for you that Pakistan will strike back again in a month. We Indians need to be ready for that.
everyone wants money. It's a trade war.
Yes it looks authentic, as per news some US experts have visited to assess radio activity level.
Obviously when we targeted there airbase near 10km to islamabad where they used to keep the nuclear. I guess they panicked and as u can see trump said million innocent life saved in tweet but in conventional war not possible. These pakistani under nucler umberalla. Thats ehy yesterday we didn’t engaged.
I heard that there is nuclear leakage happening in Pakistan ? is it true - There are multiple news on Google
Is that the real reason. I imagined that Ambani wanted to conduct IPL so he would ve asked his friends in US and India to intervene n stop the was.
So we will let China do whatever they want...
