Prediction Markets

What are your thoughts on Prediction Markets like Manifold?- https://manifold.markets/

It seems like a fun way to bet on the probabilistic outcome of ANY event and get to the ground source of truth given enough users participate

If Grapevine built this on here, would you use it?

P.S- Here's a good primer on how they work- https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq