OPPORTUNITY TO BUY AGAIN ?

This was my last post. https://share.gvine.app/v6TQfpB9h6PmCXo16

A bit long post this time. Tomorrow i ll be sharing a post on how i pick stocks and build positions.

In my last post, I had mentioned the market would offer plenty of opportunities this year, though I don’t expect any sustainable trend until maybe Feb–March next year. For now, the market remains in a range where it makes sense to add positions and increase allocation in stocks and sectors. I am open to the index moving toward 23,000 to fill the gap this year. A proper trending move, in my view, is more likely around Feb–March though this remains just an educated guess, and I could be completely wrong.

Last time, I also mentioned that I would not be deploying more than 60–65% of my total capital this year, and I have stuck to that. I haven’t increased my allocation beyond 65% so far. After this recent fall, I am now looking to move toward 75–80%, adding progressively.

Knowing when to go all in and when to hold back is critical. Cash is not idle, it’s a position and often the best one when conditions aren’t favorable. If a clear trend emerges by year end or early next year, I am prepared to scale up aggressively even to 150% of capital with leverage. But without conviction I would rather sit on cash than force trades. Discipline in capital deployment is what makes the difference too.

How do I decide when market breadth is weak or when to limit my capital exposure? I track two things the % of stocks above key moving averages, and the percentage maintaining a higher high, higher low structure. I combine both to judge overall strength. This year despite the upmove, that number never crossed 60%. That’s a clear signal for me until I see broad based participation and real improvement in overall breadth, I don’t go all in.

Since my last update, here’s how things played out. Around that time, I identified opportunities in fertilizer and agriculture names like Chambal, KSCL, and Avanti Feeds. I had shared screenshot of my position too in the last post. At one point each was up 25–30%. A solid trend seemed to be emerging but the rally fizzled, prices slipped back to my average, and I ultimately closed out with a combined loss of about 2% for those 3 stocks. In my previous post, I had pointed out that sometimes entire groups show strength only to completely fail forcing an exit. That’s exactly what happened in chemicals and fertilizers sector. A live eg of failure along the way.

Another area I looked back then at was finance, where I held positions in Chola Holdings and Bajaj Finance. Both did reasonably well not underperforming, but not delivering strong performance either and I cut them down. I also exited SRF, though in these 3 case with some good double digit gain. The key reason for closing out these three positions is to reallocate toward a specific market-cap range , companies between 3000 crore and ₹30000 crore. I see this as the real sweet spot for wealth creation. I don’t want to stay in mega or very large caps where returns tend to be muted. I had entered them earlier only because the market wasn’t offering enough opportunities. Now that better options are emerging, I have pulled capital out from large cap will focus on the mid-cap range, where I believe the real potential lies. Any small account (less than 8-10 cr) should remain in mid around range to have a faster growth.

Since my last update, I have identified a few new sectors to focus on. Healthcare services remain on my radar. I held Narayana Hrudayalaya earlier, which went up nearly 55% before retracing to around 18%. I’ll look to add more here, along with other names like VIMTA Labs, Medanta, Aster DM, and HCG. I plan to pick two more positions in this space and i have started doing it. Capital markets is another area of interest with MCX, Anand Rathi, and Motilal Oswal. The third sector is defense. My picks are BDL, Apollo Microsystems, Rosseltech, GRSE. I first entered BDL during the India Pakistan conflict when defense stocks rallied sharply. I couldn’t build the intended position at that time as they shot up vertically, but after a 20–25% correction, I now see a proper entry point to add more where risk reward is favourable. I see all these 3 sectors as longterm themes, aligning with both fundamentals and technicals.

Metal is another sector i see that is going to perform signs are there. Movements in metal sector is largely related to global market and chinese market. Whenever china starts doing well, metals do well.

Whenever I enter a stock, my decision is purely based on technicals. I don’t chase turnaround stories or “maybe” stocks. I wait for clear signs of strength, even if that means buying 20–30% higher. In markets, strength compounds, strong tends to get stronger.

I have some other ipo stocks on my radar that i ll cover in tomorrows post.

When I build positions in a stock, my pain tolerance is at its lowest. If I am accumulating, I never take more than a 6–7% loss unless there’s a true black swan event. I buy only after a lot of confirmation. Many conditions have to align before I enter. And if I am buying the strongest stocks but they stop showing positive signs, I get out. I always take cues from the market. I may have strong opinions, but if the market says otherwise, I listen. At times it happens that i get out and that stock starts rallying, I have made peace with the fact that i cannot capture everything so i dont break my rules. I ll let it fly and will look at it when it cools off. People think that stock market is a profit making business, its not, stock market is risk management business, the moment you would understand this, your bottom line will start improving.

Now you might ask - how will I make it big in the market if I can’t tolerate pain? The answer is - I do tolerate pain, but only when I already have skin in the game. Take Narayana Hrudayalaya for eg. It went up 55% for me, then dropped back to around 15%. Did I cut anything? No. In fact, I am looking to add more. That’s because I only average on the way up, never on the way down , the most common mistake most people make. Some say it’s okay to lose 15–20% of your capital in markets. It’s not. It’s never okay. I am fine not making money for the next 2–3 years, but one thing is non negotiable, I will never lose more than 6% of my capital in any year whether it’s COVID, 2008, or whatever crisis the future may bring. I love my money to death. Take away my profit all you want, but market cannot take my capital away from me.

Earlier, I used to cut positions whenever they moved 25–30% in my favor typically booking half the gains. But from this cycle onward, I have stopped doing that. At some point, you need to be clear about what you want from the market. I don’t want 20-30%. The market can take back those 20–30% moves all it wants. If I build 10 positions and most of them retrace, I am fine with that. I’ll give it back without regret. I am in the market to capture the trades that deliver triple digit returns 200%, 300%, or more. Every stock I buy is with the conviction that it has the potential to move in that direction. And to catch those 2–3 big winners, I know I’ll have to give back some profits along the way. I have given back 2 lakhs of my profit to the market in last 2 months. There’s simply no other way around it. Its like losing few battles to win the war. The truth is you only need a couple of stocks to move 200–300% over 12–18 months to land in the top 1% of market participants. You only need 1 stock in 5 years to truly change your life. Just one. And if the market takes multiple 30% moves from me while I wait for that, so be it. I know I’ll eventually get to those 2–3 stocks and that’s all I’ll need. In the end, it comes down to choice do you want crumbs, or do you want the whole pie ? Now i am here for the whole pie.

I can get proper entries using technicals, they allow me to time my buys well, scale my allocation correctly, and enter at strong points. But technicals alone don’t give me conviction beyond a certain point. And conviction is what survives every storm. Conviction doesn’t mean being blind, it means staying with your position within your framework, even when the market tests you again and again. This is where most people exit because tolerating pain is not everyone’s cup of tea.

Take defense and capital markets, for example. Both sectors especially defense names like BDL and GRSE have corrected more than 20–25%. This is where I combine technicals with fundamentals. I have started reading everything available, every line on the internet about these sectors and the stocks I hold. Research reports, management commentary, con calls, outlooks I am go through it all. It will help to weather vicious pullbacks of 25-30% or more. Because when those corrections come, weaker hands always get shaken out. That’s just how the market works, it keeps throwing the weak players out and then it keeps moving higher.

I’ll end this post the way I always do — by reminding you that the next 2 to 3 decades offer immense opportunity to create wealth. India has never been in a better spot. This is a golden period. The number of multi millionaires we see today is only going to multiply exponentially in the coming decades. But to benefit you have to play your cards right. Put in the hard work, put in the time, and when the conviction comes, go all in. You cannot make it big without that. Personally, 90% of my salary goes into the stock market every month. I don’t do SIPs, I don’t do mutual funds, I don’t do insurance,I don’t do PF nothing. Every rupee goes into the market. Because you can’t expect to start with a fixed pool of capital and become truly big. That path will always be slow. You need to keep bringing in fresh capital, compounding it over time and letting the market work for you. But before all of that 1 thing matters above everything else - Belief I believe. Do you?