Are IT Biggies up for doom?

Real Indian IT Biggies are Ixxx, Wxxxx & Txx. (Indian IT industry is of size $254B. These 3 companies contribute approx 25% of that)

Point is, with that size comes number of employees. These companies maintained that large pool over the period of time to showcase their strength to win large deal customers. & That worked too, for 3 decades. Dot com boom, 2008, RPA .. things kept coming. But the model of linear growth of revenue & large pool remained largely same.

Then came Gen AI. Keeping hysteria of AI aside, fact remains that gen AI is a great productivity booster. So you can provide the same or more output with smaller but talented teams of Software engineers. You don't need big bench strength.

Suddenly their bench strength has become their biggest weakness.

Mid or small IT companies of India are far better positioned in this scenario. They will be able to move fast comparatively. Thanks to smaller base of employees to train with gen AI skills.

Unfortunately these biggies won't be able to( why that happened, will post the possible reasons later)

So fact is, either these companies will have to lay off loads of employees. Stringent WFO rules is one the measure to make sure ppl leave on their own. But funny thing is that, with these kind of measures, the people who leave the org are the ones who are actually talented & want to focus on the job than the daily harrassment. So the whole purpose is defeated.

Or give worse compensation to the employees to maintain margins. But that again is a vicious cycle. With lower compensation, you will attract low quality talent. So you will have no chance to win high margin deals. So you again pay less & cycle continues.

Either way, unless these big 3 think of some pivotal strategy or a great product, they are going to be doomed in gen AI era. They were visionary 3 decades back. But what got them here, won't guarantee the future success.