10 Minute Delivery is a VC created bubble
Interesting what's happening with 10 minute delivery & venture investing in India.
Zepto (the only 'new' large outcome) was skipped on by most in the early stages. Some had Swiggy Zomato in portfolio, but mostly, the patterns didn't match – at the time Gorillas & other US/EU based quick commerce apps were crumbling.
Zepto did really well for itself, carved out a playbook.
There's a pattern, it can now be matched to sub categories.
There isn't any envisioning the future going on here from any of the VCs, it's mostly what has happened and hence 'what else' could happen. It's pure pattern matching.
Obviously the VC process is deep and very thorough, so all research and 'post FOMO thinking' gets baked in. But essentially it's all aided by FOMO.
As someone part of of the ecosystem, I want to call out this bubble in the making.
Talking product sense with Ridhi
9 min AI interview5 questions
My bear case:
-
A stranger folding laundry is higher-risk than a gig rider dropping a packet. One bad theft/harassment headline and CAC spikes because households now demand background checks, cameras, insurance. These costs don’t amortise across multiple tiny jobs.
-
India’s median disposable income (~₹18k/month) can’t swallow a high “convenience premium.” Quick-commerce platforms quietly raised delivery fees from ₹0 to ₹29–49 in the last 18 months; reorder frequency stalled when subsidies were withdrawn.
-
Skilled domestic workers don’t sit idle in micro-warehouses the way Maggi noodles do. Peak spikes (7-9 a.m., 7-9 p.m.) mean you over-staff twice a day and pay them to twiddle thumbs the rest of the time, or you fail the 10-minute promise.
-
AOV (₹450-600) is too small to cover rider incentive (₹30-50), dark-store rent, packaging and 28% platform take-rate that house-help/diaper vendors expect. Every order bleeds ₹80-120 even before marketing.
Agreed on most points. Good founders (which I assume they are) would navigate through it too.
I am not dismissive of the space, just dismissive of the unnecessary hype
I agree with the minister!
When I had read this quote, I was disappointed by it. I didn't feel this is what founders need.
Unfortunately, today I think he was partially right. It's a risk averse ecosystem. Full of non-founder ex consultant investors who push this thought process down to everyone.
The minister is an ass to make such ridiculous statements.
It is the govt and lazy babus that dont let innovation thrive here.
Word. It is ridiculous to the level it's going.
10 minute maids and 10 minute baby food delivery and 10 minute fashion, multiple rounds in these categories within months in same startups
I'm sure there is signs of PMF, because if you give maids in 10 mins as replacement (discounted on VC money), even I will claim service 2-3 times. It's gamed pmf
Gamed PMF puts it well :D
There is no way so many 10 minute companies can survive. It’s not a real need.
Yes I want groceries in 10 minutes
But no - I don’t wany clothes or diapers or pet food in 10 mins. You don’t need to make a seaparate app for that. That’s so painful
I have been buying through QCOM for the last 1.5 years. Initially with Blinkit(because that was the only service offering) for low AOV. Then, went with Zepto.
My current AOV ranges between 1100-1300 and atleast 4 times in a month. Here’s my take on all the 3 platforms.
Zepto’s Supersaver enables to save more along with CC offers.
Insta mart again with the Maxxsaver along with CC offers(specially HDFC Swiggy card), is almost on similar lines as Zepto.
We use Blinkit only for smaller AOV in which case Zepto’s fees become higher and Swiggy’s per item price is higher.
I don’t buy from the nearby supermarket since the discounting is only on specific items. I utilise the supermarket just for fresh vegetables and fruits.
Utilizing the supermarket only for items which isn’t available on the QCom platforms(specific brands).
Used to do monthly purchases from Dmart but it’s far from my place so would anyday prefer QC.
Absolutely - I love Q Commerce and I think Blinkit Zepto are phenomenons - they are amazing
My commentary is on newer investments in vertical quick commerce (10 minute maids, baby products, clothes etc.)
And more so on how VCs today are behaving in this market
Again, none of them bet on Zepto when the time was right (except Nexus) And now because Zepto and Blinkit proved it, they are just making hedged bets in possibly smaller outcomes which are typically safer to make
Creating a new problem in the society and then providing the non sustainable temporary solution in the name of job creation and innovation. Sole quick commerce companies would not survive with this concept.
They play the time game. Sometimes even zomato shows your order will reach in say 25 mins. 10 min later it would still say 25 mins to go. They somehow tweek this that their 10 mins does not match with actual 10 mins.
Waiting for 2 minutes 😴
Kuch bubble nhi h bhai.. Maybe the valuations are buffed but these apps are going to stay or consolidate but the q commerce is here to stay